Handicapping the Australian Open 2012, Plus Some Fearless Tennis Prognostications

A bit against my will, I'm going to stick my neck out and make some fearful fearless prognostications for the Australian Open that started this week -- and for the rest of the year in tennis.

I'm reluctant because the picture is more muddled than in many years. But here we go. 

Men's Draw

The easy pick on the men's side is Novak Djokovic, given his tremendous momentum. And I hate to go with the easy pick. 

Talking heads peg Andy Murray as co-favorite given his stellar play on the Asian circuit. Like he haven't seen that before. 

Will Novak Djokovic build on his career-year in 2011, or is that pace unsustainable? Many believe Djokovic's 2011 is one of the top 5 years in the history of tennis. But, in actuality, it was one of the best 9 months in tennis history. In the final three months Djokovic looked like he didn't want to be there. Two retirements, a withdrawl, a shoulder injury and the bizarre injury in the Davis Cup where he stopped play, down 3 and love, screaming and going to his knees in front of his home-town Serbian crowd. Skepticism builds that the score was more painful than the rib injury. 

But Djokovic has the best return of serve in the game, and with all the slow hard courts, that favor his game, starting the year he'll regain his momentum. 

From the men's draw, Djoko should meet Andy Murray in one semifinal, with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the other. But potential upstarts include Juan Martin del Potro, Milos Raonic, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and John Isner. 

My picks: Djokovic edges Federer in the final and Nadal doesn't make the semifinal. delPo is my dark horse pick. 

Women's Draw

The women's side is in its usual turbulence. It's basically WImbledon champ Petra Kivitova v.s. the walking wounded: Caroline Wozniaki (wrist), Serena Williams (sprained ankle and severly dented image ), Maria Sharapova (really bad ankle) and Kim Cljisters (body, most of it, it seems). Vika Azarenka and Samantha Stosur are good dark horses. 

UPDATE: Well, my pick flamed out in the first round officially making this the worst pick ever. I am humbled. Looks like Stosur is officially now the Amelie Mauresmo of Australia, poor thing. 

My pick: Long shot Slammin' Sammy Stosur hoists a second slam trophy, this time in front of her home crowd. That would cause riotous celebration in Australia. 

Predictions for 2012

1. Federer wins either another Slam or the 2012 Olympics Gold. If Fed wins the Australian Open he will regain the number one ranking around mid-year and beat Pete Sampras' record for weeks at the top. 

Fed turns 31 years old, and haters have been counting him out since, what, he was 26? But Fed is on a 21-match win streak and was absolutely dominant at the year-end ATP World Cup, blitzing Nadal in the final, surrending only 9 points in the entire, final set. Look for Fed to attack opponents' second serves more than ever. 

The biggest barrier for Fed going into 2012 is recovering from long matches, not beating the other top two players. 

2. Nadal fails to defend his French Open title. Nadal has all the tools to make it back to number one. And his 2011 season would have been a great success for almost anyone else, with a Slam title, as well as making the finals of WImbledo and the U.S. Open. But Rafa-lites should be afraid, very afraid. His psyche is bruised. 

The new Dunlop balls used at the French Open are livelier and favor aggressive players. I expect someone like Juan Martin del Potro, Djokovic, Fed or, if healthy, Robin Soderling to win the French this year. 

Nadal basically gave up in the fourth, and final set of the U.S. Open final, failing to mount a comeback even though a weary Djokovic, fighting a back injury, was basically rolling his first serve in at speeds as low of 95 mph. When you see a 95 mph first serve in the middle of the box, and you stay well behind the baseline to return, you're waving the white flag. 

Nadal followed that with a string of losses on the Asian circuit, the ATP World Cup, and the year opener. 

Since then Nadal has been unusually whinny, even by his standards. In an interview with Spanish-language El Pais, Nadal blamed the press for saying he is always injured. Then he proceeded to say his losses were because -- he is always injured. Nadal said he had heat prostration when he lost in Miami, the season was far too long (conveniently ignoring the $1 Million exos he plays), his shoulder was hurt during the U.S. Open and ever since, his legs hurt, he worried about his health after retiring, that he couldn't find any way to beat Djokovic and he could only wait for his level to come down, and that he was putting more weight on the end of his racket to help his serve -- but this would hurt his game now. 

Why would such an enormously-talented player sound so utterly lacking in confidence? Still, if Nadal could win the Aussie, all that would evaporate and he'd be off on a tear. 

3. Djokovic will peter out before the Olympics. If 76 matches last year was about 16 too many for the world number one, do we expect him to make it through four slams plus the Olympics in one piece? Remember, he didn't have to play a single match in the 95-100 degree dry heat that makes his exercise-induced asthma act up. What are the odds he gets spared the heat two years in a row? If that happens, I'll become a climate change denier on the level of James Imhof. 

4. Major Changes Happen in Top 10. Although players bubble up and down in the ATP's top ten list, the overall group has been pretty constant. I expect that to change. There are too many up and coming players that have top ten potential. 

Look for Mardy Fish, Nicolas Almagro, Janko Tisarevic and possibly Tomas Berdych to all get knocked down a peg, to make room for these newcomers or returnees: Juan Martin del Potro, Milos Raonic, and John Isner or possibly Gaels Monfils, Robin Soderling (if he's healthy) and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Meanwhile, Andy Roddick slides out of the top 20 while young guns Bernard Tomic, Grigor Dimitrov, and perhaps Kei Nishikor move in. 

5. Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniaki will win Slam titles this year. There I said it. Shudder. 

6. The "Big 3" in Men's Tennis Becomes the Big 3+3". The usual top 3 pull away from the pack, with Murray, delPo, and Ferrer distancing themselves from the rest.  

7. Linespeople Draw Straws for Aussie Mixed Doubles. On a more humorous note, do you think anyone wants to call the baseline for the mixed doubles All-Footfault-in-Mouth-Team of Andy Roddick and Serena Williams? People will be pulling seniority to get out of that match <g>. 

Looks like a great year in the making. Here are some links. 

AO site: 

Australian Open Matches online: 

My photo of Djoko is from the BNP Indian Wells final 2011. Click to enlarge. 

Comments

[Warren]

Well it sounds like you are predicting a little bit wider breadth at the top of the men's side and the usual scattering of winners on the women's side for 2012.

Sounds like another interesting year for tennis.

[Debbie Tripiano]

Guess Sammy Stosur is no longer a dark horse!

[Warren]

I have to admit that I liked your Stosur pick myself. At least you stuck your neck out. I was still looking at the draw to see if there was a choice any better than random. The women's side gives you a 1 in 20 chance of guessing. The men's side probably 1 in 6.

At least we can all agree that the winners of the many matches have earned their victories. The strokes have been so penetrating and their reflexes have been incredible. We still have a dozen days to enjoy this event.

[Jack]

I always enjoy your insight ... many times very accurate. You add a nice dimension to the two weeks of viewing. I like del Potro being back & also Raonic in the run. Fed still continues to be amazing & hard to understand why he is not everyone's favorite. :-) I like the new youth coming up as in Tomic. Hopefully Americans Isner, Young, Harrison & of course Fish make some results to keep USA in the mix. Maybe the American women will produce a new darkhorse or two. jmf

[Warren]

Well the men's semis and final as well as the women's final were all very exciting this year.

I am surprised that the men's side again brought up the top 4 seeds. No one else broke out of the general pack. It was a guess who would make it through the women's side again.

I thought Federer could have beaten Nadal if he hadn't made so many offensive errors in changing the direction of the ball especially on his forehand down the line. He seems to flatten them out too much and drives them into the net. Nadal and Murray had their chances against Djokovic but just can't seem to get over that last hurdle.

The women finally have a number 1 again with a major under her belt. I think the top women all think they can reach number 1 unlike the men's side.

So now you have the SAP and Indian Wells this month.