Predicting Men's Tennis in 2010

Having done a decent job of forecasting the last two grand slams (I picked Roger Federer to beat Juan Martin del Potro in both the U.S. Open and Australian Open finals, so I had three of the four finalists right and one winner), I'm getting cocky. 

Herewith, I'll stick my neck out even further, predicting the top ten rankings at year's end, the winners of the next three Grand Slam tournaments, then rank and take a closer look at some of the top contenders.

Of course, injuries and upsets can intervene and seedings mean my picks can meet in early rounds of any given tournament but, heck, no risk no gratification, so here go my fearless prognostications:

Caption: Line up from the 08 year-end Master's Cup championship. Davydenko, Simon, Murray, Djokovic, Federer, Tsonga and del Potro.Click to enlarge. Only Giles Simon has disappeared from the top ten. Credit ATP here.  

BIG PICTURE
This promises to be a tremendously entertaining year in men's tennis. I love the diversity: Today's top 10  players come from 10 different countries. We've got power players, all court players, players from the diminutive Nokolai Davydenko to basketball body-types ala del Potro and Cilic, from the skinny to the hulks, like Fernando Verdasco who can leg-press 710 pounds. 

I expect the top five to be scrambled, and Tsonga, Roddick and possibly Soderling to be pushed down a tier. Let's get concrete. 

I give Roger Federer a 65% chance of finishing the year at number one yet again, and a 18% chance of adding a calendar Grand Slam to his career slam and 16 total GS titles. But there are five players with a legitimate chance at ending Fed's reign, and over a dozen realistic Grand Slam contenders. 

Competitors are so closely matched at the top of men's tennis, more so than at any time in my memory, that matches are often decided by a couple of points. You can be the number one player in the world while winning only 54% of the points you play over an entire year. 

Perhaps the key statistics are those that show ability to win big points on your opponent's serve. This table from near the end of last year, shows how Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray convert break points more often than anyone else. Tellingly, you can see why Federer has become more vulnerable in the last couple of years; although he is still near the top in all service game statistics, he has fallen out of the top in return stats. We're only talking a couple of percentage points, but that's all that separates the top 20 players.

 

So, while the serve remains the single most important shot in tennis, and a big server can beat anyone on a given day, tournament results are dominated by those with the best return games. Yet, Roger Federer continues to win the biggest matches, despite leaving more break points on the table than most anyone because he plays a different brand of tennis on the biggest stages and protects his own serve spectacularly well -- witness last year's Wimbledon final where Andy Roddick held serve in 37 consecutive games before giving up a solitary break, the last point of the match. 

Grand Slam Winner Predictions

Australian Open. Federer d. del Potro. 
Simply to present a full set here, I'll reprise my calls on the first Grand Slam; back in January, I predicted a re-match of the U.S. Open ( My quarter-final round up is here) and was half-right when an injured but game del Potro fell in the quarters to Marin Cilic, then Federer beat Murray.  Great tournament. 

French Open 2010. del Potro d. Nadal. 

Semi's: Nadal d. Djokovic & del Potro d. Federer
People forget that one of the best matches of 2009 was the French Open semi-final between del Potro and Federer, a five-set clay-court shoot out where Federer had to come from behind. Nadal will be incredibly motivated to get back his French Open crown. But Nadal has lost three straight matches to del Potro, who presents as big a match-up problem for Nadal as the Spaniard does for the number one. As for the defending French champion, Federer has to have a let down eventually, after all he's only human (Fed is human, isn't he?). 

Wimbledon 2010. Murray d. Federer. 

Semi's: Murray d. Djokovic & Federer d. Cilic
Andy Murray's tremendous all-court game finally earns him a Grand Slam title and makes him the definitive second-best player in the world. Can Murray serve well enough to pull this off? Will he have the nerve to go to the net when he needs to? 

U.S. Open 2010. Federer d. del Potro

Semi's: Federer d. Djokovic & del Potro d. Murray

They're the two best hard-court players in the world; why shouldn't they meet again? At the beginning of the year I would have picked del Potro to end the year at number two, but he's fought a wrist injury since last November and is taking two months off from the tour. I'm assuming he shakes it. 

Remember, the U.S. Open is the only fast-court major left now that Wimbledon and the Australian have been slowed down dramatically. That favors Federer and del Potro, but also creates the possibility of upsets by big servers. 

Ranking the Top Ten

The Contenders:

 1. Roger Federer. You're the king until someone dethrones you.

This April, Federer should pass Ivan Lendl for the most weeks as number one, and I make him the favorite to end up there at year-end. 

Overlooked in discussion of strokes and technique is that Roger is simply the best tactician in tennis. 

Last year, Roger was in all four major finals, and came within two sets of winning the Calendar Slam. Oddly, he won the two tournaments he should have lost and lost the two he should have won. But as Woody Allen said, "90% of success is showing up," and nobody has ever made the final rounds of Grand Slams like The Fed.

Arguing against Federer continuing on top is his declining record in the Masters events, and his declining stats on return of serve. Photo credit: Australian Open.com, click photo to jump.

Click for more on Roger Federer. 

2. Andy Murray. Tremendous Full Court.
Murray had a great Australian Open, eliminating both Rafael Nadal and Marin Cilic while surrendering only one set going into the final. 

You could see Murray's game blossom when he overwhelmed Nadal alternating between out-defending the ultimate defender, and moving to the net aggressively to close out points. 

If Murray's serve hadn't fallen off in the final we would have seen a tremendous contest. Count on his serve being better the next time Murray meets Federer. Click for more on Andy Murray. 

 3. Juan Martin del Potro. How Bad is Wrist?

Watching Juan Martin del Potro grow in seemingly every tournament he played last year was a joy. 

Only a year-and-half ago he was a promising backcourt player with a tepid serve. Then he sprouted one of the best, and most daring, serves in tennis. 

A year ago, opponents hit to del Potro's forehand to avoid one of the best two-handed backhands in tennis, now they avoid the forehand because it's become even better. Six months ago, Federer showed people how to beat del Potro by hitting low and wide and bringing him to the net; now del Potro goes to the net to finish points. 

I was ready to confidently predict del Potro would rise to a definitive number two this year, until he hurt his wrist. No telling how bad that injury is. Remember, players that have lost a full year to wrist injuries include: Andre Agassi, Boris Becker, and Andy Murray. 

Click for more on Juan Martin del Potro. 

 4. Novak Djokovic: Will the Djoker Get Serious? 

Caption: Djokovic has great hands and mobilty. Click to enlarge. Credit ATP. 

How can a 22-year-old with a Grand Slam tittle and more victories on the tour last year than anyone be overlooked, yet somehow Novak Djokovic is. Djokovic is arguably the best athlete in the top 20, has a full court game and, according Andy Roddick, is the best in tennis at changing direction, that is ending a cross-court backhand rally by hitting a down-the-line winner. 

Djokovic also has an excellent, if under-rated serve. Much like Federer, he goes more for placement and spin, often hitting slice wide or flat up the middle at 125 mph, rather than outright velocity. 

In fact, Djokovic's game is more like Fed's than anyone else in the top 20: Tries to maintain the baseline, serves a high percentage to set up his big forehand, and can play great defense if he has to. 

In his favor, Djokovic is excellent on both hard courts (winning his one Grand Slam at the Australian and making the U.S. Open finals) and clay, where his semi with Nadal at the Madrid Masters was one of the top matches of 2009. 

Still, Djokovic faces several significant questions: First, is he fit enough to become number one? Fitness comprises more than doing enough running or weight training; Djokovic has respiratory problems that plague him during hot weather. Beyond that, he quits during matches more often than anyone on tour, for : Sore throat, blisters, back problems, dizziness, you name it. 

 Secondly, Djokovic is reluctant to come to the net to finish points. He's enlisted former net-rusher-par-excellence Todd Martin as a coach, which supposedly will help there, but then again we heard that several years ago when he hired Todd Woodbridge. 

Djokovic came in more; Woodbridge left, Djoko retreated to the baseline again. What will we see in 2010? 

 5. Rafael Nadal
Am I crazy, saying that Nadal will sink all the way to fifth in the world when clearly he's capable of getting back to number one? I have to admit putting a number five by Nadal looks strange to me too. Former number one Ivan Lendl, whose comments are more insightful than most ex-players (read: McEnroe) believes he can get back: "if you look at Rafa, you can say that injury is why he lost No. 1. That's a part of the game. I think there's a good chance he'll be No. 1 again."

Nadal has the greatest combination of sheer speed and power I've seen on a tennis court. He reminds me most of a Guillermo Vilas, the "bull of the pampas" re-tuned for modern equipment that allows both more top-spin, and hitting with more velocity from far behind the baseline.

But Nadal faces more than one problem in getting back to the top. Tennis is going through another cycle, this time with more tall players. Nadal's heavy-kicking topspin that gives Federer fits, simply sits up in the strike zone for these tall players, who step inside the baseline and crack his short balls. Witness his losses to: Berdych (3), Cilic, del Potro (3), Johansson, Soderling, and Tsonga. 

Plus, players now have two, clear strategies for attacking Nadal and in 2009, Rafa frequently looked perplexed, without an answer, particularly at the year-end Barclay's Masters Cup and the Australian Open.

When Nadal first burst on the scene his opponents were perplexed. They tried to avoid his top-spin forehand, but when they hit deep to Nadal's backhand corner, his great speed, coupled with playing so far behind the baseline, meant he could seemingly run around everything hitting his biggest offensive weapon, the inside-out forehand -- even from the backhand doubles alley. 

But when you become number one, more coaches and more players analyze you and try new tricks. Tomas Berdych, the 6 ft 5 Czech, figured out the strategy that Nadal sees monotonously these days: Roll a short, wide shot to Nadal's backhand. While many players could attack that shot, Nadal runs laterally, parallel to the baseline, so he ends up hitting backhands from way off the court. 

After a few of those he yields a short ball, the tall players (plus Davydenko) step well inside the court and hit a flat inside-out shot to Nadal's forehand. Result: They get to put the next ball away at the net, and Nadal has to run from outside one doubles lane to the other. He has the speed to do that but it means putting a lot of miles on increasingly fragile legs. 

While Federer has game plans A, B, C ... through Z, Nadal so far only has Plan A. That's a fantastic Plan A, but it's predictable and under attack. Click for more on Rafael Nadal. 

Caption: These images from Nadal's straight sets loss to Davydenko in Paris, 2009, point out the problems Nadal faces now that the top players -- particularly the tall ones -- are taking his shots early. Nadal hit most of his shots from well behind the baseline, and because he was under duress, got less velocity on his shots than the diminutive Russian. Davydenko, meanwhile, lived inside the baseline, and was even able to take Nadal's forehands out of the air with swinging volleys and put them away.

 

  

Grand Slam Hopefuls

This next group is unlikely to end the year with the number one ranking, but is quite capable of winning a Grand Slam title. 

6. Marin Cilic
Announcers are fond of saying that Cilic has great movement for a man that is 6 ft 6 in. Well, you can delete the "for a man of 6 ft 6 in", Cilic is a great mover period. 

Since they are the same height and born only 5 days apart, Cilic is frequently compared to del Potro, but their games are actually quite different. While del Potro loves the baseline and will drift far behind it, relying on his 100 MPH forehand, Cilic likes to hug the baseline and get to the net on forehand approaches. 

Plus, his tactics are excellent. Cilic did something during his victory over Murray at the U.S. Open that I'd never seen. Murray, a great returner, started edging in on Cilic's serve. Instead, of ignoring him, or cranking up the speed, Cilic used his height to land kick serves very short in the box, making them jump up over Murray's head. Murray was perplexed and never got into the match. 

Questions: Gets barely 50% of his first serves in, forehand is a tad inconsistent. 

I peg Cilic to be the hot player of 2010. 

7. Niokolai Davydenko

Always under-rated because of his quiet personality and small size, Davydenko has beaten every other player in the top 10, including Nadal three times in a row and Federer twice, sandwiched between a dozen losses and losing at the Aussie. 

What many fans -- and announcers -- don't appreciate is that Davydenko is one of the most aggressive players on the tour. Don't think of going for it equating to miles-per-hour, think about aggressiveness as never conceding the baseline, taking everything possible inside the court, and ending cross-court rallys with down-the-line winners. He's one of the best service returners. 

The most concise description of what it's like to play Davydenko came from del Potro, after losing the  year-end Master's Cup championship to the Russian: "He plays like a Playstation, it's so fast." 

Davydenko is, along with Djokovic, perhaps the best at changing directions with his two-handed backhand. And his swinging forehand volley is clearly the best I've ever seen. That volley was on full display when he beat Nadal repeatedly last winter: The classic Nadal topspin forehand that perplexes Federer didn't phase the Russian, he rudely took it in the air at the service line and put it away -- over and over. 

At 5 ft 10 in and an optimistic 150 pounds, Davydenko can also serve up to 136 mph. Downside: His game requires a high level of execution, and he admits that is much harder to maintain during the five-sets required at the Grand Slams than in the three-set Masters events. Click for more on Davydenko. 

8. Sam Querrey

I expect the tall California to pass Andy Roddick as the top tanked American by the second half of the year. From watching Querrey play Roddick in person at the San Jose last week, he has improved his movement significantly, taking short balls in plenty of time and coming to the net confidently to finish points. 

Querrey also showed tremendous versatility with his serve, varying speed, spin and placement, going from 77 MPH up to 141 MPHs, getting 32 aces against Roddick that day. Click for more on Querrey.

9. Robin Soderling: The Nadal-giant slayer. Was pegged as an indoor-season player, with a big serve that starts with a toss that can bring rain, until he sprung on the scene with a five-set two-day loss to Nadal at Wimbledon followed by the upset at the French. Serves in the high 130's regularly, and cranks up a massive, flat forehand. Fed gives him fits by rushing him, but few can. I enjoy watching Robin, but am not yet convinced he can perform at a high level consistently. 

10. Fernando Verdasco

I'd like to see Verdasco go for sheer pace more often on his first serve. If you can actually hit 150 MPH serves, why not drag out that cannon more often? Click for more on Fernando Verdasco. 

11. Andy Roddick . 

Roddick doesn't get enough credit for his consistent excellence, shown by eight years in the top ten. People forget that Roddick was the world number one before Federer's ascension, and came within a few of shots of beating Federer at Wimbledon twice. 

Particularly discouraging for Andy, must be losing a succession of big-serving shoot-outs starting last July. He didn't lose to retrievers, or defenders, he lost at his own game starting with the final at Wimbledon, where Federer got 50 aces, then to del Potro in the Washington final, to del Potro again in the Montreal semi's, to Querrey in Cincinatti, followed by the early round five-set heartbreaker to John Isner, and to Querrey again in Memphis last week. 

Injury problems are also becoming more frequent, and Andy gets few ranking points during the clay court season. I've under-estimated Roddick before, and perhaps I'm guilty of that here, but I believe he'll be hard pressed to stay in the top ten yet another year. Click for more on Roddick. 

Upstarts, Dark Horses & WIld Cards

John Isner
Isner is in the discussion about the best server in tennis, along with Karlovic, Gulbis, Querrey and Tsonga, but until last fall I thought Isner's movement would prevent him from being a top player.

Then, he beat Roddick at the U.S. Open by coming to the net, demonstrating excellent touch on his volleys, and showing good enough footwork to run around his backhand and crack some huge forehands. Saturday, he out dueled fellow giant Karlovic in straight sets in Memphis. 

Isner has a different body type than those other tall guys; he's big-boned and perhaps 250 pounds. He'd be a four or a five in basketball, and players at those positions get subbed frequently to rest. Not in tennis. In losing this Sunday's final at Memphis to his friend Querrey, Isner seemed to fade: He won the first set in a tiebreak behind 78% of his first serves, lost the second serving a still-good 66%, and lost the decisive third set while getting a dismal 48% of his first serves in play. Click for more on Isner.

Ernests Gulbis. 

The Latvian is perhaps the second biggest hitter on tour lagging only del Potro, but his results have been disappointing. Gulbis, del Potro and Cilic were the youngest trio in the ATP's top 100, back in 2007; all three were born within a few weeks of each other. But while the Argentine and the Croat have broken through Gulbis has not -- yet. 

Gulbis has an absolute bazooka of a forehand, but too often pulls out the bazooka when all he needs is a fly-swatter -- trying questionable shots and going for way more than he needs to, even on easy put aways. 

Still, Gulbis' talent is indisputable. Click to read more on Ernests Gulbis.

Ivo Karlovic: Anybody that can serve 78 aces in a single match has an almost 50:50 chance against anyone. What's under-rated is Ivo's ability to follow his serve to the net and back it up with great volleys. Slaps hard forehands, but at this level return and backhand are liabilities. Still, to calculate Karlovic's chances of winning in a seven match Grand Slam that is 50% seven times in a row or: 50%, 25, 12.5, 6.25, 3.12, 1.6, which yields an 0.8% chance of winning the whole thing. It's that simple.

Jeremy Chardy: Another big-serve-big-forehand guy. So far his serve lacks the direction to get him to the next level, but that's changeable. If not, he can always get a career in modeling, witness this photo. 

Tomas Berdych: Created the pattern for beating Nadal and has done that three times now. Almost old-fashioned with hard, flat strokes. Came within a point of beating Fed at the Australian in 2008. 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Huge serve and forehand, tremendous athleticism. His broadshoulders and legnth make him look even bigger than his 6 ft 2 inches. Problems: Inconsistent backhand, erratic second serve, and that annoying mix of injuries and weak showings that make people question his motivation. Tsonga became trendy after his semi-final beat down of Nadal in the 2007 Australian, but I fear that his career may have peaked then. 

 

Credit: Tsonga in Marseilles, from ATP.
 

Fernando Gonzalez. In the latter laps of a great career. Can still bring the biggest forehand in tennis history: Timed at up to 118 MPH (yes, 118 MPH, that's not a typo).

Jose Acasuso. Not really a contender, but Jose pulled off one of my favorite shots of 2009 during the U.S. Open, so I'll stick that in here. Running wide to track down an overhead smash, Jose flicked up a lob, took two more steps, stopped at the stack of towels to pick one up and wipe his face, tossed it to the ball boy, pivoted and ran the width of the playing surface to track down the next smash. Gotta' love it.

Stanislaw Wawrinka. Overlooked game. Beautiful one-handed backhand, effective serve, smart tactics. Second-best player from Switzerland behind some guy he teamed with to win an Olympic Gold medal in doubles. 

Gilles Simon. Another unconventional player -- a rabbit, defensive back-board, yet he hits flat shots instead of top-spin. Doesn't make any sense on paper, unless you can execute like Simon. As Federer said after losing to him twice, "(Simon) plays an odd game; the better you play the better he plays." Was in the top eight in 2008, but sagging badly of late. 

Joachim Johansson.
Who? OK, so Johansson is no longer a threat and is off and on the tour, but it's my blog and PimPim is one of my favorite players, so I'll include him if I want to. So there < g >. Besides if you read this far, you're into tennis, and should look at the images of his serve below. 

Here's Joachim's career in short: Beat Roddick at the U.S. Open, then set the then record for aces in losing to Agassi, one of the all-time-best returners, at the Australian. Took a year off for shoulder surgery. In his first tournament back, thumped Nadal in straight sets leading Nadal to say, "He's top five for sure with that serve." Took a year off for shoulder surgery. Came back for the Swedish Davis cup. Retired due to shoulder injury. Came back to beat Lleyton Hewitt hitting 32 aces in Bangkok, I believe it was. 

Unlike other tall players that rely on velocity, Johansson has / had every dimension in his serve hitting his 138 MPH serves with huge kick way out wide on both sides. 

How many six-six players can get this bend, rotation and pronotation? He's only 25 and can still fire aces so, here's hoping he can get some momentum and have one, nice run. Top photo from ATP, bottom thumbnail from Tennis.com. Go to Stan Smith's excellent analysis of Joachim Johansson's serve.)

 

 
  

 

Comments

[Warren Yamaguchi]

I like the analysis. I, myself, think Nadal, Soderling and Verdasco will finish lower than your predictions.

I am going to guess the Monty Python reference is in the statement "Let's get concrete".

[JimF]

@Warren. Wow, and I thought I'd get dinged for dropping Nadal to number five! Re: the hidden Python ref, nope, keep looking

[Ehkzu]

Did you all know there's some sort of athletic event happening RIGHT NOW up in Canada? You're talking about Nadal's knees while I'm watching Kim Yu-na, who makes Sharapova look like Susan Boyle--and is an extraordinary athlete as well.

Not to mention Tessa Virtue, who's not just a great athlete but appears to be a more or less perfect human being--the kind of woman every other woman wants for a sister in law and every man wants to grow old with.

When Virtue and Moir won the ice dance (don't make that face, Jim--I can see you) and they played the Canadian national anthem in a stadium in Vancouver full of weeping, singing Canadians, and Tessa obviously knew the words to her anthem and sang it full-throatedly along with the crowd, beaming, and looking more than a little like Grace Kelly--it was as touching a moment as I've ever experienced watching a sporting (yes, sporting) event.

I'll think about tennis after the closing ceremonies (I want to see whether they have another equipment failure after all).

Now I have to get back to the white-knuckle excitement of the curling quarterfinals...

[JimF]

@Ehkzu. What's that? Oh, are they holding the winter Olympics again? This Year? With no snow?

You mean the event where men show more cleavage than women, victory is determined not by points but by votes (quadruple what?), and a Gold Medal winner gives it away by celebrating before the finish line and falling over? No, not watching.