Ernests Gulbis: Time for Tennis Prodigy to Make a Move?

Back in 2007, Ernests Gulbis, Juan Martin del Potro and Marin Cilic were the three, youngest players in the ATP top 100. Three years later, del Potro has won the U.S. Open, CIlic made the top ten, and we're still waiting for Gulbis to live up to his great potential. So far, Gulbis is languishing in the 60-90 ranking limbo, winning about half his matches. 

Update: Gulbis won his first tour title, beating Ivo Karlovic, Feb 28. Click for details. 

He pushes top players to three sets, then loses to much lesser talents, although he has victories over Novak Djokovic, Sam Querrey, Tomas Berdych, James Blake, and Jeremy Chardy. 

When Gulbis took Roger Federer to three sets early this year, Federer said, "Everybody knows that Gulbis is the player with the most potential right now. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the ranking he deserves. I took him very seriously. I wasn't surprised by how he played."

Caption: Pictures are from Gulbis v. Roddick at the SAP Open in 2009. Please click to enlarge. 

Gulbis is arguably the second biggest hitter on the tour behind del Potro and has a bazooka forehand. Unfortunately, he too often pulls out the bazooka when the situation calls for a fly swatter -- going for low percentage shots too frequently, going for outright winners when he doesn't need to, and not seeming to have a good sense of the match. 

Caption: Gulbis volleying in the quarters at Delray, Feb10. Click for ATP photo. 

Examples: At WImbledon, Gulbis was blowing Rafael Nadal off the court, winning the first set, so Nadal responded by moving far behind the baseline and taking control of the match. In the post-match presser Gulbis thanked a questioner for telling him that had happened; he never caught on and responded to Nadal's change.

 In a match I attended in San Jose, Gulbis pushed Andy Roddick all over the court, even though Roddick was serving huge, up to 150 MPH. Four times, Gulbis had easy volleys at the net, with Roddick behind the baseline but instead of hitting an easy winner tried to squeeze the toughest possible drop shot over the net, only to have each attempt hit the tape and roll back. 

Gulbis got one break point on Roddick serve, ran around a first serve to hit a potential inside-in-forehand winner. All he had to do was get his return in and he had his break. But instead, he hit a rocket that landed a foot deep. You don't get more points for winners that go 100 MPH than those that go 70 MPH. 

Still, Gulbis is fun to watch. It's easy to quantify velocity, but Gulbis has other traits. 

It seems as if the ball moves more slowly for him and he has more time. Watching Gulbis on TV play another match with Roddick, this at the U.S. Open, where Gulbis was up a set in the third set before self-immolating, I got the sense that no matter how hard Roddick hit the ball, Gulbis had all day to respond -- returning 140 MPH serves as if he was in a casual volley drill. I don't know if that is vision, or mental acuity but I'd like that skill.

 This may be the determining year on whether Gulbis goes from prodigy to top player, or bust. Let's hope he makes it over the hump.