Analyzing Roger Federer's Win Over Andy Murray in the Australian Open Final

Sometimes less really is more.

I've been listening to a ton of analysis of the Australian Open men's final. Everyone from Boris Becker to Tim Henman to Patrick McEnroe to Brad Gilbert chiming in on what Andy Murray did wrong. Murray was: too passive, too indecisive, didn't attack the short ball, didn't go after Federer's forehand enough ... and on and on.

Sometimes, things are actually quite simple. 

If Murray had served in the final the way he did in beating Rafael Nadal, it would have been a tight match. Instead, Murray served badly, and it wasn't close. Period. 

In the third set of the final Andy Murray got over 60% of his first serves in and as a result the set was dead even. Murray had five set points, missed several by only inches, and succumbed only at 13-11 in the tiebreaker. 

Murray also forced Federer into missing tough passing shots when he closed tight to the net. 

If you only watched that third set, you'd surely think Murray and Federer were absolute equals. 

In the first two sets, Murray got only half his first serves in so, yes, he was more defensive. But that's a symptom. 

It would be difficult for any player to be aggressive against any top 20 player while serving only 50%. (Admittedly, Marin Cilic does it regularly, but we'll leave that for another day).

Also, Murray clearly wanted to tie Fed up in backhand, crosscourt rallies where his great two-handed backhand would have the advantage -- except it didn't work. Fed's backhand was awesome. He rarely dropped one short, made few unforced errors and at times even more Murray out of position in the exchanges. 

It is tough when you go at your opponent's weakness with your strength -- and he holds up. 

Commentators noted that Murray was much more assertive in his victory over Rafael Nadal, spent more of the match inside the baseline, and came to the net more. 

Yes, he did but Murray also served at 60% against Nadal, and had 13 aces in only two-and-a-half sets. It's much easier to be aggressive behind that quality of service. 

Don't confuse cause with effect. At that level, when you try to come in from a tough position you end up like Murray in this photo, trying to hit a winning volley from the service-T, off a dipping pass. Hard way to make a living.