Handicapping Men's Australian Open Tennis

With today's release of the draw for the 2010 Australian Open, it's time to stick my neck out and make a few bold predictions. Let's start with the winner of the first Grand Slam of the year. In a subsequent post, I'll audaciously predict the year-end standings and the other Slams. 

I'm picking Roger Federer to beat Juan Martin del Potro in the final of the Australian Open, reversing the outcome of their exciting U.S. Open match, where del Potro won his first Grand Slam title. 

Fed and del Potro were clearly the two, best hard court players in the world last September and nothing has happened in the few months since then to change that. 

Caption: Think the 6 foot 6 inch del Potro isn't agile? Click to enlarge. Photo: ATP.  

Pundits have been predicting Federer's fall from the top of tennis for three years now only to be disappointed. But he's made at least the semi-finals of 22 consecutive Grand Slams, and until someone proves otherwise, he's still number one. 

"Federer Faces a Daunting Draw", according to the ATP Web site, with his quarter including Nikolay Davydenko, the hottest player on the tour with three straight wins over Rafael Nadal, two straight over Federer, and the championship of the year-end ATP World Tour Championship. A sleeper is GIles Simon, a retriever who has beaten Fed twice on hard courts. 

Here are two things to watch for in Federer's early matches in Melbourne: How is his first serve? Over the last several years, Federer has become increasingly reliant on his first serve. When it works, he can be dominant in his own service games, allowing him to be loose and aggressive on ground-strokes. When the serve is off, he often presses, goes for too much and starts missing forehands. 

Second, how is his return game? In the last three years, Federer has sunk out of his perennial spot near the top on return stats such as points won on return, and break points converted. When he loses close matches it is often because he gets numerous break opportunities, but doesn't close them out. 

As for del Potro, last year he improved so rapidly it seemed like he grew a new weapon with every tournament. Two years ago, del Potro was a baseline rallier with a tremendous backhand, but an inconsistent serve. Then he developed one of the better first- and second-serves in tennis -- beating Andy Roddick for the Cincinnati title in a serving shoot-out in 100 degree weather. 

Next, del Potro improved his forehand until that became his best shot. When he loads up, he can hit 108 mph flat rockets. Plus, his movement and net play improved in the second half of last year. 

If the seedings play out, del Potro would meet Andy Roddick in one quarter followed by defending champion Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals. Del Potro not only beat Roddick in their last meeting, but has beaten Nadal three consecutive times, all on hard courts, giving up only one set in all three meetings. 

In an interview with TV's Charlie Rose, del Potro said that Nadal didn't give him nearly as big a challenge as Federer, because Nadal's groundstrokes lack pace. Nadals' top-spin, which is so challenging to Federer and others, simply sits up fatly in the 6 ft 6 in del Potro's sweet spot. 

A huge, unknown variable in this year's Australian Open will be whether the event organizers responded to extensive complaints by many pro's that last year's surface was far too slow. As former number one Mats Willander put it, "I don't know what they were thinking ... the ball pops up and doesn't penetrate." 

This was perfect for Nadal, who could basically play clay court all-baseline tennis on a hard court and win; the perfect example being his five-hour metronome slugfest with Fernando Verdasco in last year's semifinal. 

But, there is a rumor that they've moved to a slightly different Plexicushion surface, which will be faster and have less bounce. If that is false and they keep the old surface, which was the slowest at any Grand Slam event, that will be a big boost for Nadal. If they switch to a faster, lower-bouncing surface that will be a big negative for the defending champion, since he has trouble on faster courts with his big, complex forehand. 

Let me offer some comments on other contenders:

Novak Djokovic, the 2008 Australian Open champion is flying under the radar and not getting his due because he didn't have a great year at the Grand Slam events. But Djokovic won more matches than anyone on the tour last year and has a great hard-court game. Djokovic is gifted, perhaps the best athlete of tennis' top five. One big question is his fitness, not in the sense of conditioning, but because he has respiratory problems in the type of hot weather we usually see at the Australian Open. He got a bad break last year when the organizers forced him to play a night match that went until late in the morning, then come back at mid-day to face Roddick in 100-degree heat. (Is the Australian Open the worst organized of all the Grand Slams?)

Andy Murray, was the gamblers' favorite going into last year's Auzzie, but lost in the quarters to Verdasco, while fighting a respiratory bug. A slow surface would suit his unusual, defensive style. Murray is in Nadal's quarter; they've split their last four matches, with Murray eliminating Nadal at the U.S. Open and in Rotterdam on hard courts. 

Davydenko is under-rated mainly because U.S. jock-announcers have no respect for anyone who isn't a big hitter. Davy has tremendous footwork, stays glued to the baseline refusing to give up ground by taking the ball on the rise, and changes directions on his backhand better than anyone with the possible exception of Djokovic. The Russian has questioned his own ability to win Grand Slams because, if I understood him, he has to maintain a high level of play to beat the bigger players and that is difficult over five sets. After losing 12 consecutive matches to Federer, Davydenko has won their last two matches; they would meet in the quarters. 

Robin Soderling, the big hitting Swede that ended Nadal's reign at the French Open is well suited to hard courts. After 13 straight loses to Federer, he's won their last two meetings. 

Marin Cilic, is one of the interesting dark horses. Five days younger than del Potro and the same height, Cilic's more full-court game is taking a bit longer to develop. Coached by Boris Becker's old mentor, Bob Brett, Cilic is already an excellent tactician. He uses a heavy kick serve to control points, rather than going for aces, moves the ball around and is a good volleyer. Cilic didn't just eliminate Murray at the U.S. Open, he left the Brit completely perplexed. Cilic beat Nadal decisively in their only hard-court meeting, last fall. He would meet del Potro in the fourth round, if both make it through. 

Ernests Gulbis, is one of the most intriguing and frustrating players on the tour. In 2007, Gulbis was the third-youngest player in the top 100, just a few weeks older than then fellow-teens Cilic and del Potro, but regressed in the last year when he focused a lot of his energy on weight training. Gulbis has one of the five best serves in tennis and an absolute bazooka for a forehand. Unfortunately, he usually self-destructs trying high risk shots when he has easy winners lined up. If he ever gets his tactics and game-sense down, Gulbis has the potential to win Grand Slams. Conversely, if his game stagnates any longer, he may miss his shot at greatness. This could be a pivotal year for Gulbis. 

There are so many more, exciting players with the potential to create upsets or perhaps win it all: Roddick, Tsonga, Verdasco, Querry, Chardy, and home favorite, Lleyton Hewitt. 

First round matches start Sunday with DirecTV offering coverage of five-courts simultaneously. Among those to look forward to are: Richard Gasquet v. Michael Youzhny; Marin Cilic v. Fabrice Santoro (as the Magician's seemingly never-ending farewell continues). 

The best first round match is likely to be Radek Stepanek v. Ivo Karlovic. If memory serves, the last time they met was a 5 hour 59 minute marathon in the Davis Cup, where Karlovic completely demolished his own record by serving an astonishing 79 aces, yet lost to Stepanek.