Handicapping Men's U.S. Open Tennis

For the first time in quite a while Roger Federer has gotten a sweetheart draw for a grand slam tournament, with most of the top contenders crammed in the lower-half of the U.S. Open which started this week. Perhaps that will curse Fed and keep him from reaching his record 22nd-straight Grand Slam semi-final and defending his title to earn his sixth-straight U.S. Open championship. But at this point he's the strong favorite. (Here's the schedule for TV coverage, although, sadly, ESPN has the deal.)

Rafael Nadal, who has benefitted from quite easy draws at Wimbledon this time has an extremely tough path to this final, as does Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro. 

If play stays on form, Federer would meet Nikolay Davydenko, against whom he holds a 12-0 head-to-head record, in the quarters, followed by the winner of Andy Roddick v. Novak Djokovic in the semifinal. 

Since Davydenko lost to Sam Querry yesterday at the Pilot Pen and had an injured wrist, there is a good chance Federer will instead meet Querry. Fed has won all five sets those two have played. 

By contrast, to win the tournament, Andy Murray would need to beat Juan Martin del Potro in the quarters, then the winner of Nadal-Jo Wilfried Tsonga in the semifinal, and come back the next day to top Federer in the final. And, Murray starts out with the erratic but dangerous Ernests Gulbis in his opening match. 

Similarly, Nadal would need to top Tsonga (or Berdych or Gonzales), then Murray or del Potro, and then on the next day Federer. 

Even most of the "sleepers" or "upset makers" are in the lower-half of the draw with Nadal and Murray including: Ivo Karlovic, Marin Cilic, Gaels Monfils, Berdych, David Ferrer, and Giles Simon. 

Make That 22 Semifinals? 

While Federer has to be the favorite based on his form in beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back to win Cincinnati, I'd still pick the field given how many players are coming into top form at the same time. 

It was amazing to watch Federer play completely different styles in his consecutive matches with Murray and Djokovic, basically preventing either player from playing their style of tennis. 

Against Murray, Fed was hyper-aggressive and barely hit a backhand. As commentator Darren Cahill put it, "Murray must feel like Federer's backhand area is the size of a postage stamp". 

Yet the next day, against Djokovic, Federer played from a more neutral position, engaged in lots of top-spin backhand rallies, refused to give up the baseline, and thus stole time from Djokovic and forced him into hitting an uncharacteristically high number of unforced errors. I don't know anyone else in tennis today that can change their game plans that radically from one day to the next. 

Some Predictions:

• Djokovic over Roddick. TV announcers, with their pronounced U.S. bias are hyping Roddick. But coming off WImbledon, Roddick has now lost four (4, count 'em) big serving shoot outs in a row -- falling to Federer's 50 aces at Wimbledon, then losing to Querry, and twice to del Potro. That has to be debilitating. Also, I sense that a little of the sting was gone from Roddick's serve post Wimbledon. Djokovic is starting to get it back together and is a sold threat to win it all. Remember, Djokovic took out Nadal easily in Cincinnati and gave Nadal everything he could handle on clay in Madrid. 
• Tsonga has the game to beat anyone in the world -- but won't. I'd love to see him in a rematch of the Australian Open '08 semifinals with Nadal, but sadly Tsonga seems to lack the motivation to play his best game for several matches in a row. I hope he proves me wrong. If not, look for Berdych or Fernando Gonzales to emerge on that wing, which would make Nadal's path a lot easier. 
• Del Potro v Murray is a toss-up and a potentially spectacular match. I expect either one, if they're still standing at the end, to beat Nadal. Announcers made a big deal of del Potro's burn-out at the end of the Montreal final. Don't be misled. Del Potro had a grueling month, winning Washington in stultifying heat, before making that final where he was outplaying Murray until his legs gave out. Along the way del Potro beat: Nadal, Roddick (twice), Gonzales, and Lleyton Hewitt. 

Overall: Federer has to be the favorite, but Djokovic is a close second and I predict del Potro will make his first Grand Slam final. Murray, Nadal and Tsonga could take it all, though there is so little separating the top seven players.